For our eleventh Rundown article, we’ll examine the most derivative category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover an acting category that counts among its winners, the fewest from corresponding Best Picture winners.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound

Runner-Up Predictions

• Molly’s Game (WL O)(TL R) [New]
• Mudbound (PP R) [New] (TB O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: There’s not much standing in the way now of James Ivory becoming the oldest competitive Oscar winner in history. Call Me by Your Name has dominated awards season as the most honored screenplay and with both the Writers Guild and USC Scripter prizes in its trophy case, there aren’t many alternatives but to believe it will be the ultimate winner. Choosing a runner-up is the more daunting task. You can probably toss Logan and have a three-way race for second. Each screenplay has benefits: Mudbound is critically acclaimed, Molly’s Game is written by popular screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, and The Disaster Artist had its fair share of accolades as well. That said, Disater Artist hit a snag when James Franco failed to secure a Best Actor nod. Mudbound is underperforming and doesn’t appear to have enough traction to overtake Ivory. That leaves Molly’s Game, which is about a strong woman taking life by storm and refusing to compromise. It’s an inspirational story for the #MeToo era. That said, Ivory should probably prep an Oscar speech.
Peter J. Patrick: This seems like another slam dunk win for Call Me by Your Name. None of the other nominees have much of a chance, though since I have to select a runner-up, I’m going with Mudbound which would have had a better chance in another year.
Tripp Burton: The legendary James Ivory, now 90 years old, won the USC Scripter and WGA awards this weekend. Those wins, along with being the best place to honor a highly beloved film this season, should make this a landslide and give Ivory his first ever Oscar. That means that the other nominees — including the first superhero movie nominated for writing (Logan), the first female African-American nominated in this category (Mudbound), the directorial debut of a previous winner in this category (Molly’s Game), and the first nomination from previous contenders (The Disaster Artist) — will have to be happy with their record-setting nominations.
Thomas La Tourrette: At this point it feels like a slam dunk for James Ivory and Call Me by Your Name. I really cannot imagine anything else winning, especially as it just won both the Writers Guild and USC Scripter awards. Ivory had three nominations and no wins for the prestigious Merchant-Ivory films back in the 1980-90s, and this is also a way to honor him for that. I just do not see any other film getting this. Both Mudbound and Molly’s Game will have their fans, and will probably come in second and third in the race. Logan stands no chance, and will have to be content with a first writing nomination for a super hero film. At one point, The Disaster Artist might have had a chance of scoring an upset, but the reports of sexual abuse by director and star James Franco will have torpedoed its chances as he is just too associated with the film for it to win. Call Me by Your Name easily wins.

KEY: