For our fifth Rundown article, the only category that awards the product of a specific nation and not an individual. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Foreign Language Film as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll look at a category that has paired so significantly with another that they are often thought to be inextricably linked.

Best Foreign Language Film

Winner Predictions

• A Fantastic Woman (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• The Insult
• Loveless
• On Body and Soul
• The Square

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Insult (PP O)(TL O)
• Loveless (WL O)
• On Body and Soul (TB R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: The last time a country won the Best Foreign Language Oscar on its first nomination in 2001 when Bosnia & Herzegovina the prize for No Man’s Land in 2001. However, that’s a technicality as that nation was a relatively new one, split off from the prior nominated Yugoslavia. If you want to go with non-technicalities, you have to go all the way back to 1976 when Ivory Coast won the Oscar for Black and White in Color. That immediately eliminates The Insult from first-time nominee Lebanon. That’s a lot of data just to disqualify one film, but it happens to be one of the films that seems to be playing stronger this season than the others. On Body and Soul is a crowd-pleaser, but no one thought it was even going to be nominated, so could it really win? Yes. The same is true of The Square, although that film has quite a few negatives, namely the fact that it’s a bit bizarre. That leaves two other films that seem to be earning a lot of attention. Loveless is a Russian film about divorcing parents and the child who runs away after hearing them argue. It should resonate quite well with the Academy’s sentimental voters. However, I think the film that has the best claim to a victory is the most honored of the films nominated this year: A Fantastic Woman. The film, about a trans woman, benefits from a cultural zeitgeist that is benefiting a lot of films like it. That it’s gotten such excellent reviews may be all it needs. That said, the subject matter will still turn off some of the older Academy members and unless a younger demographic see the film as part of their voting, I suspect that it could struggle a bit. At this juncture, almost any of these five films could possibly win for one reason or another, but sentimentality has often triumphed over quality with this voting bloc, so Loveless and On Body and Soul could be the beneficiaries.
Peter J. Patrick: I have a feeling we’re going to see the Foreign Language Film award go to a country that has never won before, either Chile for A Fantastic Woman or Lebanon for The Insult. Both are serious, highly acclaimed films, of the type that almost always win this category.
Tripp Burton: The timely A Fantastic Woman — which acts as both a riveting drama and an exploration of life as a transgender woman — should win here for being entertaining and important. If not, then the Hollywood names behind The Square could help it, as could the more accessibility of On Body and Soul.
Thomas La Tourrette: It’s an interesting set of films that are nominated, with only one that seems to have no chance of winning. Hungary’s On Body and Soul seemed a surprise pick and will likely have no chance of winning. Chile’s A Fantastic Woman seems the likely winner right now, but, having not seen it, it is hard to be sure of that. It got strong reviews for both the film and the lead performance, and that may be enough to put in in the winner’s circle. It has stiff competition from Sweden’s The Square, whose director was overlooked a couple years back for Force Majeure. There are some intriguing and very funny parts to the movie, but it meanders off at the end, which left me feeling unfulfilled. Loveless was directed by the Oscar nominee for Leviathan, so it is a somewhat known quantity, though it did not get as good reviews as the earlier film. The dark horse might be Lebanon’s The Insult. All the films have gotten good reviews and there is no definite frontrunner. France’s BPM or Germany’s In the Fade would be likely winners if nominated. Those two and First They Killed My Father had each gotten a number of precursor awards. Of the nominees, only The Square has multiple precursor awards, but I still find it an unlikely winner. I will go with A Fantastic Woman just edging out the rest of the field.

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