For our sixth Rundown article, we look at the category most responsibility for place and setting. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Production Design as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the newest Academy category.

Best Production Design

Winner Predictions

• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• Beauty and the Beast (PP R) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049 (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: When you look at the five nominees in this category, it’s easy to see this as a three-way race. As much as Dunkirk and Darkest Hour did a good job recreating World War II Europea (Dunkirk in France and England and Darkest Hour in London alone), these aren’t achievements we haven’t seen a million times before. That leaves the two Art Directors Guild (ADG) winners and a third film that may have been undervalued. We’ll start with that film. Beauty and the Beast was the film I put on my list to win as early as my first predictions early last year. I saw the film and was blown away by the craft behind the production design. Yet, many prognosticators seemed to waffle on the film, yet it managed to pull off the Production Design/Costume Design tandem win. It’s been eight years since the last film to win Production Design wasn’t also a Costume Design nominee. Matter of fact, earning both nominations is almost a requirement. That’s why Blade Runner 2049, winner of the Fantasy award at the ADG is likely the runner-up. Although Avatar and Blade Runner are both sci-fi productions, Avatar created a brand new world out of nothing. Blade Runner 2049 was informed not only by common views of the future, but also the original film. That puts The Shape of Water, the period design winner at the ADG in the lead. It has both the Costume Design and Production Design nominations. It’s a Best Picture powerhouse and it’s as much a period film as it is a fantastical one. I think this film has the best chance of winning, but the design of Blade Runner 2049 is one of its many most celebrated elements, which is why, even without the Costume Design citation, Blade Runner 2049 is a solid runner-up.
Peter J. Patrick: I think the uniqueness of the design for The Shape of Water will prevail here. If not, then any of the other nominees has a shot with the detailed design of Beauty and the Beast the one that I would select.
Tripp Burton: The Art Directors Guild awarded The Shape of Water and Blade Runner (as well as the non-nominated Logan) with their award, and those two seem to be in the front of the pack. A lot of these races seem to be between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk, but Dunkirk’s design is much more minimal than the other nominees and probably won’t factor in here. I expect The Shape of Water to pick up another win here Oscar night to add to it’s large haul, unless this is the best place for voters to check off their appreciation for the visual treat that was Blade Runner 2049.
Thomas La Tourrette: The fact that both Blade Runner 2049 and The Shape of Water both won guild awards should make them equal frontrunners, but I just do not believe that to be the case. I think that The Shape of Water is the clear leader, especially given its film’s 13 Oscar nominations. The secret government workshop/jail, the movie theater, and the individual apartments all were strong visually and added to the feel of the movie. It will be close, but I think that The Shape of Water will follow in the footsteps of del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth and claim this Oscar. Blade Runner also had striking sets, but it feels like that film has just faded out of the public’s consciousness and to an extent out of Oscar consideration. It even has more precursor awards and would be a worthy winner, but I am just not sure that will happen. Beauty and the Beast could be a contender for its fantastical castle, but I think it will also be an also-ran. Neither Dunkirk nor Darkest Hour will be much of a player here. Look for The Shape of Water to win.

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