Often considered the second-most important category of the night, the Best Director prize frequently goes to the Best Picture winner, but will that tried and true formula work this year?

Best Director

• Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
• Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – True Grit
• David Fincher – The Social Network (O) (O) (O)
• Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (Ja)
• David O. Russell – The Fighter

Runners-Up

• David Fincher – The Social Network (Ja)
• Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (H) (H) (H)

KEY:

Wesley Lovell: This will be one of the most watched categories of the night. By the time we get this award, we should know who is getting it based on the film’s overall haul, but even then we can’t be 100% certain. The foremost prognosticator, the Directors Guild of America has anointed Tom Hooper Best Director, but a lot of people think Social Network’s strong support with critics will force Oscar voters to consider giving David Fincher, the more recognizable name, the prize. In looking at the precursors and the trajectory of The King’s Speech, I can’t help but see Hooper as the most likely victor. Not that I want him to win, I would prefer any of the other directors more, but it would not at all shock me to see him win. A Best Picture/Best Director split is a very rare occurrence and when a film pulls in as many lower category awards as I believe King’s Speech will, the chances of a Fincher victory diminish.

This decade alone, there have been three separate splits, that’s equal to the number in the last three decades combined. That suggest the Academy is more amenable to create split decisions than they used to be. However, Chicago is the only race that seems somewhat more applicable. Split years are often met with a spread of the awards, though both Gladiator in 2000 and Chicago in 2002, had decent total numbers (5 and 6 respectively). Still, that’s not a very high total when you consider films like Slumdog Millionaire and Return of the King had 8 and 11 awards respectively. So, if King’s Speech hits 6 or more awards prior to Best Director (only if it immediately precedes Best Picture), Tom Hooper’s in. If King’s Speech has fewer than 3 going into the Best Director category, Fincher might well emerge.

Peter J. Patrick: The Social Network may seem more of a writer’s film and an actor’s film than a director’s film, but Fincher’s precise direction is the glue that holds it all together. The perfectionist’s perfectionist, Fincher is the most notorious multiple take director since William Wyler. He shot every scene multiple times, many of them more than 100 times and don’t think the Academy, like the critics, hasn’t noticed. Like Wyler before him, they may not like him personally, but they have to respect his output.

Tripp Burton: This is proving to be one of the most intense races of the night, and one that could signal how the Academy views this race. Traditionally, this award has gone to whoever wins Best Picture, and the DGA, no matter of how their actual skill as a director is viewed. In the past decade, though, the Academy has voted for this award people different from the Best Picture winners, but who are seen more as auteurs deserving of signaling out. Tom Hooper would certainly fill the first category, with The King’s Speech poised to take Best Picture, but David Fincher is the more respected director who made the showier film. The winner here won’t have much of an impact on the Best Picture race (although if Hooper wins here The King’s Speech can’t lose Best Picture), but could point the way future races will turn out.