In our third predictions article for the 83rd Academy Awards, we take a look at the two documentary awards, Documentary Feature and Documentary Short Subject.

KEY:

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Exit Through the Gift Shop (O)
• Gasland
• Inside Job (O)
• Restrepo (O) (O)
• Waste Land

Runners-Up

• Exit Through the Gift Shop (H)
• Inside Job (H) (H)
• Restrepo (H)

Wesley Lovell: In the recent past, the Academy has made it clear that it likes it’s documentaries to have either an ecological or heavily political. Of this year’s nominees, Inside Job is the most politically minded and covers an issue near-and-dear to a lot of liberal hearts, the financial crisis and how it was brought about by corporate greed at the expense of the little people. The problem is that corporate greed angle might not play well with all segments of the Academy. Gasland is a bit political, but mostly ecological. However, it just doesn’t have the cachet of The Cove or of An Inconvenient Truth, both films that had significant portions of critics awards backing them. And while fracking has been in the news lately, I just don’t think it has the merit to be a winner here. Also political, but lacking the gravitas of an Inside Job, Waste Land is second only to Gasland in terms of unlikeliness.

Which leaves two other films that could pose a serious threat to Inside Job for the prize. Exit Through the Gift Shop might, on the surface, appear to be a sure vote-getter thanks to its near-perfect sweep of precursors, but even the dominance of Sicko and No End in Sight in 2007 didn’t result in a windfall for those films. A surprise victory by the more liberal Taxi to the Dark Side picked up the prize. But, you could say that those two films split votes to give Taxi a chance to take the prize. You could go back to Fahrenheit 9/11 to find the last critics awards sweeper to not pick up an Oscar, but that’s because Michael Moore didn’t submit it for consideration, hoping he could pick up a Best Picture nomination instead. He failed. Which takes us back one more year to Capturing the Friedmans winning 14 precursors only to lose to The Fog of War at the Oscars. Yet, there might be an outcry if the film loses, so it’s a strong runner-up, but if both those films split the vote, Restrepo would be a nice middle-of-the-road choice. The Academy doesn’t go for war documentaries very frequently, unless they have a heavy political agenda, so it could be refreshing and a touch surprising to see Restrepo take the prize.

Peter J. Patrick: It’s unusual to have three high profile nominees in the Feature Documentary category, but that’s what we have this year with Restrpo; Inside Job and Exit Through the Gift Shop.

The film about graffiti artist, Banksy, Exit Through the Gift Shop is the most commercial of these three, but the most commercial doesn’t always win this award. Some Academy members may find it a bit too out there.

Inside Job, the controversial documentary about the current financial crisis, narrated by Matt Damon, may hit too close to home.

Restrepo, in which the film’s directors risked their lives to follow the soldiers stationed in the most dangerous part of Afghanistan for a year, is more in the tradition of past Oscar winners from The Battle of Midway and Desert Victory filmed in the midst of World War II to the more recent look back at the Vietnam War, The Fog of War,among numerous wins for other films about lives in peril.

Tripp Burton: If you see Restrepo, it is the kind of film that doesn’t leave your mind, and the footage it uses is so incredible that it should walk away with this easily. It is timely, important, riveting and captivating, and should play right into the wheelhouse of the voters. Inside Job is also new and relevant, and Exit Through the Gift Shop has the critical backing.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

• Killing in the Name (Ja)
• Poster Girl (O)
• Strangers No More
• Sun Come Up (O) (O)
• The Warriors of Qiugang

Runners-Up

• Poster Girl (Ja)
• Strangers No More (H) (H)
• The Warriors of Qiugang (H)

Wesley Lovell: My record of picking short subject winners is not that good. Sometimes I do just pick the most interesting title. But, this year, the political & ecological dramatics of Sun Come Up make an appealing possibility for victory. Not only is it a faint treatise on global warming, island residents fleeing their homes, but it also features sociopolitical issues when the residents flee into a war-torn region of their island. It has so many Academy-friendly themes that it could easily win. But Ruby Yang poses a serious threat. She’s the only multiple nominee in the group and her film, about Chinese villagers fighting against corporate polluters also has strong geopolitical ties that could pique voter interests.

Of the other two, Killing in the Name has a shot at pulling together those concerned with issues in the Middle East while female voters may be drawn to Poster Girl about a cheerleader who joins the military and then returns home to face other challenges, but if voters are feeling particularly global in their thoughts and want to stay away from stark political messages, a film about young students being taught the value of peace in Strangers No More could take the cake. It’s a hard group to choose from, so a lot depends on who actually goes to the screenings and votes.

Peter J. Patrick: Like the Documentary Feature, the Documentary Short Subject has a long history of honoring war related subjects. Poster Girl, which is about an American soldier suffering from PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) would seem to fit the bill. However, with the current unrest in the Middle East, Egypt in particular, voters may want to award a documentary short that focuses on the region, namely the uplifting Strangers No More about a school in Tel Aviv in which students from 48 different countries come together to learn.

Tripp Burton: Killing in the Name is about Islamic terrorists, which is all you need to tell me to guess that it should be the front-runner in this category. Documentary voters love to be topical and are always drawn to war stories, so Poster Girl (about PTSD in an Iraq War veteran) and Sun Come Up (about global warming) could stand a chance, but I’ll put the Al Qaeda film first.