We close out the week with one of the more exciting races of the year, the most tense one in the top six. Here are our thoughts on the Supporting Actress race as it stands.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams – The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
• Melissa Leo – The Fighter (Ja) (O) (O)
• Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (O)
• Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Runners-Up

• Amy Adams – The Fighter (H)
• Melissa Leo – The Fighter (H)
• Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (Ja) (H)

KEY:

Wesley Lovell: This is one of the more indecisive races for this year’s Oscars and with the unreliability of the Screen Actors Guild as a predictor, we have to consider this one wide open. While originally, I had my mind set on lead-as-support Hailee Steinfeld as the likely winner, the love for Melissa Leo has been steadily growing. And with SAG going to Leo, it puts her in a far better position to win the final prize. Yet, Leo recently started taking out her own advertisements for the Oscar, a inconceivably bad idea considering how many Oscar campaigns have been lost to hubris. Still, Leo’s campaign hasn’t been entirely tasteless (like Margaret Avery for The Color Purple or Chill Wills for The Alamo) and she’s got the critical backing to give her campaign credence. Still, the category that has yielded up more surprises than any other acting category and remains the only one to recognize teenage actors (Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon and Anna Paquin in The Piano), it’s a strong possibility that Steinfeld can still pull it out, especially when her film finds its chances at victory fairly limited elsewhere. Not to mention that I’ve been waffling between Steinfeld and Leo the past few days.

Peter J. Patrick: Three of the nominees are playing real life characters, Helena Bonham Carter’s Queen Elizabeth in The King’s Speech being the third, but Mark Wahlberg’s warring mother and girlfriend easily gave the more dynamic performances.

While I enjoyed Melissa Leo’s performance as the pushy mother, I was more impressed with Amy Adams’ change of pace role as the slightly trashy, but good-hearted girlfriend. She’d get my vote, but thus far the preponderance of awards have gone to Melissa Leo and I don’t really see that trend being bucked by the Academy.

Tripp Burton: If there is an upset in the acting categories, I think it is going to happen here. Melissa Leo has won a lot of awards, but she gives a devisive performance that has as many detractors as it does fervent supporters. Steinfeld, meanwhile, gives a pretty universally respected performance in a film that has 10 Oscar nominations but no sure wins. True Grit probably needs to pick up an award somewhere, the Academy obviously loves it, and this is its best shot to pick up a statue. I think it is going to be a tighter race than others are predicting, and I see the young Steinfeld joining the ranks of juvenille victories in this category.