Well, with 3 major critics groups finished and the Globe nominations finished this morning, frontrunners and losers are already starting to creep out of the woodwork or fall out of sight. Anyways, here are my Post-Globe Nod predictions, with brief (and probably incorrect) insight following the categories. Please do not hold any of these against me!

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
Nine
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air

We seem to have four locks in this new, broader category already: The Hurt Locker, Precious, Up and Up in the Air don’t seem to be going anywhere. Inglorious Basterds picked up major steam this morning, and the reviews of Avatar are pushing it into strong contention. I think Invictus and Nine are getting enough traction to hold on to a spot in this new larger category, but if this were a year ago I think they would be losing a lot of steam. I have A Single Man and The Messenger in the last two slots, but both are fighting for their lives. The Lovely Bones, A Simple Man and (500) Days of Summer could be holding on enough to take their place still.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

With Bigelow and Reitman’s films fighting for front-runner status, a lack of nomination for either would be a major upset and blow at this point. Eastwood can do no wrong with the Academy, and Tarantino seems to have finally made a film well-loved enough by the mainstream to reenter the race for the first time in 15 years! I have Cameron here for the fifth slot. The achievements of Avatar seem too much to not recognize him, but there are a lot of candidates banging at his door.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeff Bridges has come out of virtually nowhere to lead this pack, which is shaping up to be one of the strongest, most impenetrable fivesomes in a while (since 2005?). Clooney is riding his films rave (and the best reviews of his career), Freeman playing Mandella can do no wrong in the Academy’s eyes and Firth has the best reviews of the year in a film people seem to really love. Day-Lewis has been slipping but I think he can hold off Matt Damon for the fifth slot here.

BEST ACTRESS

Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock, The Blindside
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourie Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia

Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock are locks at this point, beloved actresses (one the biggest female box office draw and without a previous nod) in box office successes. Mulligan and Sidibe are the breakthroughs of the year, and with a lack of competition both should be able to sneak in. The fifth slot is wide open. I predict Blunt (who has been just on the outside of the big show the last few years), who got a big boost this morning for a nomination in a big, period piece that the Academy likes to eat up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

This category is solidifying very fast behind two frontrunners garnering all the award attention: the vastly opposite soldiers of Harrelson and Waltz. Plummer seems on the fast track to his long overdue first nomination, and Tucci’s two critically praised performances (the other in Julie and Julia) seem to be the only attention The Lovely Bones is going to get. I think Molina can hold on for the other nomination, but there is always room for surprise.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

This is the fivesome the Globes nominated, and I can’t see any of them slipping anytime soon. Of course, SAG on Thursday could tell a whole different story.